The market is at all-time highs and earnings season is upon us. So we decided to crunch some numbers and put an ETF lens on Q1 2019 earnings. Below we have some stats for ~600 U.S equity-focused ETFs. We’ve looked at underlying components that have reported earnings and then basket-weighted the actual EPS and consensus EPS numbers.
*Data updated as of 5/9 @ 9am
What we did
|Ticker||Name||AUM||Total # Companies in Basket||# companies reported||Weight Reported||Actual Over Consensus EPS||Surprise||Total Returns (ytd)||Total Returns (w1)||Total Returns (w2)||Total Returns (m1)|
|SPY||SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust||$276,455,200,000||506||478||94%||105%||5%||16%||-1%||-2%||0%|
Let’s look at SPY as an example: 478 companies in SPY’s basket have reported Q1 2019 earnings so far. This is about 94% of the fund’s total weight.
If we divide basket-weighted Actual EPS by Consensus EPS, the average is 105%. Or, viewed another way, we had about 5% positive surprise on average for the 478 companies earnings for Q1. With only 28 companies left to report, the surprise for SPY’s earnings is unlikely to fluctuate greatly.