ETF Lens: Q1 Earnings

The market is at all-time highs and earnings season is upon us. So we decided to crunch some numbers and put an ETF lens on Q1 2019 earnings. Below we have some stats for ~600 U.S equity-focused ETFs. We’ve looked at underlying components that have reported earnings and then basket-weighted the actual EPS and consensus EPS numbers.

*Data updated as of 5/9 @ 9am

What we did

TickerNameAUMTotal # Companies in Basket# companies reportedWeight ReportedActual Over Consensus EPSSurpriseTotal Returns (ytd)Total Returns (w1)Total Returns (w2)Total Returns (m1)
SPYSPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust$276,455,200,00050647894%105%5%16%-1%-2%0%

Let’s look at SPY as an example: 478 companies in SPY’s basket have reported Q1 2019 earnings so far. This is about 94% of the fund’s total weight.

If we divide basket-weighted Actual EPS by Consensus EPS, the average is 105%. Or, viewed another way, we had about 5% positive surprise on average for the 478 companies earnings for Q1. With only 28 companies left to report, the surprise for SPY’s earnings is unlikely to fluctuate greatly.

Full Q1 ETF Earnings Table

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